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Friday, 9 January 2026

My investment return in 2025

Year 2025 is definitely not a good year for me. 

I wish to summarize my thoughts and made some self-reflections on my investment journey this year.


HLFG

This is the largest holding in my portfolio (33%). Since Sept 2024, the share price has been downtrending from its peak at RM 20+ to RM 15+. My paper profit changes from +6 figure to -6 figure. During that time, I keep on holding the share as it is still below my calculated intrinsic value of RM 23+ (based on averaged PER). 

I dig further on the company to see if it is doing something wrong. After performing my research, there are a few factors that could contribute to its depressed share performance:

(1) Low dividend (around 2%++ per annum) in FY2024.

(2) Low liquidity.

(3) Heavy exposure to Bank of Chengdu (BoCD). Profit of BoCD is 30% of total profit of HLBANK, which is quite risky if BoCD's financial performance drops. China economy is weakening in 2024-2025 (US-China tariff war, property slowdown, etc.)

(4) Conglomerate discount applicable to holding company like HLFG. Well, this is the first time I heard about this in 2025.


Lesson: I should have sold some HLFG share to reduce my holding to say < 20% so that my portfolio is more balanced.

Thankfully, in FY2025, HLFG declared a big dividend (RM 0.72/share in FY2025 vs RM0.54/share in FY 2024), double digit growth yoy. This has stimulated the buying interest from the market (at least EPF is accumulating). At the end of calendar year 2025, its share price is positive yoy (~ 4-5%). 

I have taken this opportunity to reduce my holding of HLFG (around RM 19.0-RM19.2). My holding is reduced from 33% to 25% of my entire portfolio. 


ABLEGLOB

This company is now focusing on milk industry. In Malaysia, their more famous brand is "tarik-tarik" (a fish head noodle hawker is using this brand). I saw SC neighbourhood market is selling this brand as well. Of course, this brand is relatively small compared to other big brands like F&N. That could be the reason why the ABLEGLOB management decided to sell their milk products mainly to overseas, such as Mexico.

In early 2025, their executive chairman and CEO have been remanded by MACC. The share price dropped substantially. Market (including myself) has lost faith on the Management. I have no choice but to sell all my ABLEGLOB stakes at a lost (loss of RM30k++). This has affected the performance of my portfolio tremendously.


AEONCR

This company is my second largest holding after HLFG. Indeed, its share price skyrocketed to RM 7++ in June 2024. I choose to hold (instead of trimming my holding) as I believe it should worth more based on its current earning per share and fair PER value (based on 5 year averaged PE).

But, something unexpected happened thereafter. AEONCR made a lot of impairment loss (write-off as well) on its loan book (younger generation is unable to pay back the loan). Its share price plummeted to the lowest level at RM 4.8++ in 2025. 


Lesson: I should have trimmed my holdings when the share price skyrocketed with big volume, regardless of the share price is still below its intrinsic value (A well-respected investment guru in Bursa taught me this). He told me that when share price rises with big volume, big boys will likely take this opportunity to sell their shares (based on his experience, for reference only ya).


YSPSAH

This is another sad story. The share price skyrocketed to RM3++ after it reported a good quarter earning in Q1 FY2024 around May 2024. I bought more shares of this counter, without checking the reasons why its quarter earning is so good.

The following quarters saw a substantial drop in quarter earnings. Why?? In fact, its quarter earning is dependent heavily on the unrealized forex gain/loss (as overseas sales is almost 30% of its total sales). When USD is strengthening against MYR, it reported unrealized forex gain, which makes the accounting profit looking awesome in Q1 FY2024 (this is just accounting profit, not real cash in).

YSPSAH share price plummeted when USD weakened against MYR (when Fed reduces interest rate), as the reported quarter earning was looking ugly.

Lesson: Instead focusing on reported earning, I should focus on core earning instead. For example, if it reported unrealized forex gain of RM A, I should calculate the core earning as: Core earning = Reported Earning - A. This would tell me the real profit from the core business of the company. If I know this earlier, I should have sold my shares after it released its Q1 FY2024 report.

Anyway, I choose to hold this counter as its core profit is still intact. Plus, the company has invested on a new production line which is expected to start operating in early 2026. Its dividend yield is not bad either (> 5%).


TAKAFUL

I made a loss in this counter as I read from some reports saying that expansion of SST scope (JULY 2025 onwards) could affect the profitability of Banca insurance. I read somewhere saying that it is hard to pass the cost to customers. As TAKAFUL Malaysia focused a lot of Banca insurance, I worry that its profitability would be negatively impacted. I have decided to sell my shares.


DANCO

Originally, I made a handsome paper profit on this counter (based on technical analysis GPMMA + fundamental analysis based on averaged PER + good dividend yield). However, I choose not to sell as it is still below my calculated intrinsic value. What happened next? Well....

The share price drops as its business segments hardly grow. For example, its metal stamping business (serving HVAC customers) is unable to grow. From what I know, Panasonic (one of its customers) is doing bad (competition from china). Its trading segment (core segment) on pump/valve bought from overseas such as Europe is doing better and commands a higher margin. However, this company relies heavily on M&A to expand its business (bought businesses such as pump manufacturing, EV charging station, metal stamping), which I do not prefer to see unless there is a synergy between the business segments. The bought businesses hardly grow.

One thing I noticed during the AGM. The MD hardly speak anything when I ask him questions. His brother, and the CFO did most of the talking.

In 2025, its business experienced a double digit drop yoy. I sold my shares at a loss. I am so sorry to my sister as I have recommended this company to her.


Question: Could trading business on pumps/valves could secure a sustainable competitive advantage (moat)?


AJI

I started to buy in AJI around Sept 2025 as its operation in the new plant (Bandar Enstek) started to gain momentum. If it could retain the momentum, it should worth more than the current share price.


SCIENTX

I started to buy in SCIENTX after it reported its Q1 earning in 17 Dec 2025. Its affordable housing segment is strong, which has compensated the weakness in its plastic film business. Hopefully its plastic film segment would continue to shine again. I do not dare to buy in a lot as I am still monitoring the company performance.


Summary

Overall, I could grow +2.89% only of my portfolio this year. This is truly below my initial target (> 10% yearly), but above my expectation as I was anticipating a loss initially. Thankfully, the share price rally of HLFG during the year end (window dressing?? MYR strengthening??) has helped a lot.


Hopefully 2026 is a good year for me.




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